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Indications of a “Major Hybrid Takeover of the Auto Market”

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March 22, 2009

9 Replies

centrider says:

Well, don't know if this throws water on the above assumption, but the following is from the LA Times of 3/20/09:

A new study by UCLA's Institute of the Environment, set to be published tomorrow in the office's Southern California Environmental Report Card, took at look at hybrid ownership in California on a demographic basis. The findings discovered that the rate of hybrid ownership is much higher in areas with pro-environment voting records and areas with higher incomes.

The study's author, UCLA professor Matthew E. Kahn, correlated 2007 hybrid registration data with voting data, by ZIP Code. He also did the same with median household income data. He noticed that the area around UC Berkeley, which has both high incomes and extremely high rates of environmentally-friendly voting, happened to have the highest hybrid ownership rate in the state: 5.24% of all cars registered there were hybrids.
The quoted information is from a blog of Ken Bensigner: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/upto...s-percapi.html
Jason says:

Hmm. I'm not sure that the above is necessarily surprising or should have one doubt (or believe) the original story. Naturally, environmentally conscious consumers will be more inclined to buy hybrids.

Perhaps a valid point, however, is that it's not gas prices that are spurring hybrid demand but environmental concerns? I find it hard to believe, however, that $4/gallon gas wouldn't make the average consumer think twice
centrider says:

Jason said:

Hmm. I'm not sure that the above is necessarily surprising or should have one doubt (or believe) the original story. Naturally, environmentally conscious consumers will be more inclined to buy hybrids.

Perhaps a valid point, however, is that it's not gas prices that are spurring hybrid demand but environmental concerns? I find it hard to believe, however, that $4/gallon gas wouldn't make the average consumer think twice

Gosh Jason, don't you ever sleep?

If you read the research paper, Kahn's paper seems to point to concern for greenness. I live near Newport Beach, and Seal Beach (on Long Beach's Southern border). However, when I bought my Prius, I was anticipating a run-up in gas prices.
Jason says:

Yes, yes I do! Though I am a university senior. Also, a little secret: I schedule posts for the news blog well in advance.

Regarding the topic at hand, I wonder what we'd find if we examined the geographic distribution of visitors to hybrid sites like this one. There would be a high concentration of visitors from California, no doubt, but the subcity analysis would be most interesting. Maybe when we get some more data I'll provide some statistics for analysis.
FastMover says:

Jason said:

Yes, yes I do! Though I am a university senior. Also, a little secret: I schedule posts for the news blog well in advance.

Regarding the topic at hand, I wonder what we'd find if we examined the geographic distribution of visitors to hybrid sites like this one. There would be a high concentration of visitors from California, no doubt, but the subcity analysis would be most interesting. Maybe when we get some more data I'll provide some statistics for analysis.

You would also find a large population from the "green beanie" states of Oregon and Washington -- and it is environmentally driven, at least somewhat. People here are very aware of our environment, and that environment is fragile. Large parts of our western economy are based on forestry, fishing, farming, ranching or mining. All of these, regardless of how individuals regard each, are environmentally sensitive. Better FE is also a driver, but a large part of my puchase decision for the TCH was related to my perception of environmental responsibility. I felt strong enough about it, that it forms a part of my signature on every forum I participate in.
centrider says:

FastMover said:

You would also fine a large population from the "green beanie" states of Oregon and Washington -- and it is environmentally driven, at least somewhat. People here are very aware of our environment, and that environment is fragile. Large parts of our western economy are based on forestry, fishing, farming, ranching or mining. All of these, regardless of how individuals regard each, are environmentally sensitive. Better FE is also a driver, but a large part of my puchase decision for the TCH was related to my perception of environmental responsibility. I fell strong enough about it, that it forms a part of my signature on every forum I participate in.

Interesting, FM. However, my decision was layered. After training around Solvang, Calif. for a 100 mile bike ride with my wife driving her GM pickup I thought a better support vehicle had to be out there. I read about the Prius in Consumer Reports and was intrigued with the possibility that here was a support car which could travel at low speeds efficiently. I also wanted something which could handle a bike inside the car (hence I turned away from the Honda) and would get great road mileage.Then gas prices took a dive in Dec-Jan, '06 and I jumped in the Prius.

However we get there though, the outcome is the same. Better FE and doing good.
CoalMiner says:

Wall Street Journal yesterday has an article headlined "Industry's Big Hope for Small Cars Fades". Some interesting notes on the current backlog of inventory on dealer's lots.

For now, though, dealers have to find a way to move the fuel-sippers that are gathering dust. Mr. Speas, the Honda dealer in Florida, just launched a radio campaign offering Civic hybrid leases at the same price as the model's traditional gas engine counterpart. Last summer, the hybrid fetched a $130-a-month premium over the standard Civic.
URL: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123776430557508813.html
Dream'R says:

Since it's only about a year since gas prices spiked, I think we are now seeing the results of product development decisions made last year. So even though gas prices have dropped recently the public is more aware of how vulnerable we are to world market demands and the instability in gasoline supplies. These economic factors and the greater acceptance of hybrid technology as no longer "unproven", has moved hybrids into the mainstream.

I expect that we will also continue to see growing interest in plug-in hybrids and broader applications of hybrid technology to commercial vehicles.

So, in essence, I agree with the view that for a variety of reasons including environmental concerns, hybrids will soon represent a significant part of new vehicle sales. I also remind myself that it's been less than a year since I decided to buy a Civic Hybrid and was largely ignorant of the technology until motivated by gas prices which were over $5.50/USgal. in Canada at the time. (The're still ~$3.50 in Cdn$).

The general public is "catching-on" and will now play "catch-up". I am excited to see modern technology and scientific discovery move the world of transportation forward. We need only look at electronics for a dramatic example of the pace of advances!

Cheers,

Roger
FastMover says:

CoalMiner said:

Wall Street Journal yesterday has an article headlined "Industry's Big Hope for Small Cars Fades". Some interesting notes on the current backlog of inventory on dealer's lots.
URL: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123776430557508813.html

The article talks about small cars more than hybrid technology. Most of the cars mentioned were small, conventional sedans with some comment on the Civic Hybrid.

As for hybrid sales, according to Toyota March sales figures the Camry hybrid outsold the Camry V6, a gain of 45 percent over last year. The Prius posted best ever month of March sales figures of 20,635 or about 16% over 12 months ago. Not everyone is forgetting the lessons of last summer so quickly!

(Source: Edmounds Auto Observer March Sales Stats, Link = http://www.autoobserver.com/2008/04/...v6-models.html)