Hybrid Car News

I thought I had read that the feds were considering expanding the hybrid tax credit. Am I right about this, or was I dreaming?

I've been waiting for an article like this to explain what in engineering we call a differential test. It means if you have a subset of "n" samples that are failing, we must compare these to the failure point of all samples to quantify the failure mode. Although this article is technically correct that hybrid sales are off, it fails to compare the drop in hybrid sales, say the Prius, against the non-hybrids from the same vendor. Fortunately we have four, accurate reports, independent of the Los Angeles Times, that allow us to compare hybrid and non-hybrid vehicle sales where everything else is the same:

• http://pressroom.toyota.com/pr/tms/t...les-83970.aspx
  • February 2009 - "Toyota Motor Sales (TMS), U.S.A., Inc., today reported month-end sales of 109,583 vehicles, a decrease of 37.3 percent from last February, on a daily selling rate basis."
  • "TMS posted February sales of 11,814 hybrid vehicles. Toyota Division recorded sales of 10,268 hybrids for the month."
  • 11,814 / 109.583 = 10.78%
• http://pressroom.toyota.com/pr/tms/t...les-80225.aspx
  • January 2009 - "Toyota Motor Sales (TMS), U.S.A., Inc., today reported January sales of 117,287 vehicles, a decrease of 34.4 percent from last January, on a daily selling rate basis."
  • "TMS posted January sales of 11,876 hybrid vehicles. Toyota Division recorded sales of 10,246 hybrids for the month."
  • 11,876 / 117,287 = 10.12%
• http://pressroom.toyota.com/pr/tms/T...030386090.aspx
  • February 2008 - "Toyota Motor Sales (TMS), U.S.A., Inc., today reported February sales of 182,169 vehicles, a decrease of 6.6 percent from last February."
  • "TMS posted February sales of 18,289 hybrid vehicles, a decrease of seven percent from last February."
  • 18,289 / 182,169 = 10.03%
• http://pressroom.toyota.com/pr/tms/T...020114109.aspx
  • January 2008 - "Toyota Motor Sales (TMS), U.S.A., Inc., today reported January sales of 171,849 vehicles, a decrease of 2.3 percent from last January."
  • "TMS posted January sales of 18,652 hybrid vehicles, up 30 percent over last January."
  • 18,652 / 171,849 = 10.85%

By looking at one set of numbers, the article is technically correct, hybrid sales are down. But when you look at hybrids as a percentage of vehicle sales from the largest hybrid seller, Toyota, hybrids are holding at the same 10% of all vehicle sales in January and February 2009 as they were in 2008(*). Now this raises a second question: what should we do with this information?

My thinking is nothing directly. I strongly suspect people make their buying decisions based upon what is in their own self-interest and not just because of media reports even from the Los Angles Times. Now I live in Dixie and if there is any part of the country that follows peer pressure that region is my Southern home. Yet even here, we have rascals who think for themselves (much to the eternal consternation of local ministers!) But this article by "Ken Bensinger, March 17, 2009" tells us this particular reporter is someone of interest.

Ken may be just math incompetent or he may believe he has a responsibility to address, ". . . the industry's darling just last summer, ..." "... the egg-shaped gas-savers ..." "... politicians are pushing ..." But it really comes out when we see this:

Bensinger said:

The hybrid flood marks a lasting commitment to a powertrain technology that currently represents only about 2% of U.S. vehicle sales and, by most accounts, is deeply unprofitable.

Ken is just another Don Quixote meeting the windmills and more than willing to print a distortion to 'diss' hybrids. But I have no interest in being his Sancho. After all, I like the idea of buying a hybrid cheaper in Dixie because so many Prius are available ... after Ken's Los Angeles readers all decide to stop buying hybrids. <GRINS>

Bob Wilson

* - When dealing with variability of 2008 sales, 10.03%, 10.85%, and 2009 sales, 10.78%, 10.12%, it would be wrong to call these anything other than nearly identical. The average of Jan/Feb. 2009 sales versus Jan/Feb. 2008 suggests a slight increase in the percentage of hybrid sales BUT this 0.06% is statistically insignificant.

True. Also true that the dealerships and manufacturer's recognize that the American population has short memories. The dealerships in my area are once again crammed with large pickups, SUVs and cross-overs that represent the largest margins IF they can sell them. That makes the hybrids currently available even better deals for those with even a notion of the future that we all know is coming.

Bob,
I would go even further:

1. Separate the MPG hybrids from the performance hybrids and check the numbers again.
2. Take into account the number of Prius customers that are waiting for the next generation model as the 2010 is a major upgrade.

JeffD

Don't forget the 2010 Honda Insight. The HCH is a great car but not nearly the direct competitor that the Insight will be. I am sure many considering a Prius are looking forward to test driving the 2010 Prius and Insight back to back.

FWIW, the March numbers are out and the Prius sales are even worse 55% drop vs. March 2008. It is still surprising that there is a "glut" of Prius' and that the Tacoma and Rav4 outsold the Prius for March, a reversal from 2008.

http://pressroom.toyota.com/pr/tms/t...les-86980.aspx

We have another report:

• http://pressroom.toyota.com/pr/tms/t...les-86980.aspx
  • "Toyota Motor Sales (TMS), U.S.A., Inc., today reported month-end sales of 132,802 vehicles, a decrease of 36.6 percent from last March, on a daily selling rate basis."
  • "TMS posted March sales of 13,747 hybrid vehicles."
  • 13,747 / 132,802 = 10.35%

So for Toyota, we're looking at hybrid sales as a percentage of total sales:

March 2009 - 10.35%
February 2009 - 10.78%
January 2009 - 10.21%

The next question is how is Toyota's market share doing and this is a much harder question given the problems of GM and Chrysler. It may make more sense to compare Toyota to Honda, Hyundai and Ford. My recommendation is to look at the GreenCarCongress.com report that includes a graph showing hybrids as a percentage of all sales. The attachment covers through February and you'll notice, the market penetration of hybrids is steadily rising.

It is easy to find articles ready to declare that hybrid sales have collapsed while ignoring that all auto sales have collapsed. Of course it is a valid criticism that Toyota's percentage of hybrid sales shows they have made a commitment to hybrids. However, that commitment seems to be paying off in the market place as Toyota's percentage continues to rise even in these economic times.

Bob Wilson