Hi,
I've been following hybrid sales for years and the Dashboard reports has been a stellar source:
http://www.hybridcars.com/news/novem...ues-33361.html
But I've noticed the hybrid 'take rate,' the percentage of all vehicles, seems to bounce off of 3%. For November:
- 2.63% - hybrids
- 0.19% - EVs and plug-ins
Over the years, I've seen hybrid sales exceed 3% in just two months of the nearly 60 months. Hybrid sales seem to hover between 2.5-3.0%. Yet over time, the price of most new cars has approached parity with hybrids. The 'why' still has me puzzled.
Our old friend, CNW Marketing (now called CNW Research) have released a new report showing 'the bloom is off the rose' for the Chevy Volt in their surveys of potential Volt buyers:
| attitudes | 1st Adptrs | EV Enthusiasts | New Intenders | General Consumers | Small Business |
| Very Likely | -45.54% | -32.53% | -76.14% | -53.85% | -40.54% |
| Likely | -35.17% | -34.77% | -59.65% | -74.42% | -50.30% |
| Not Likely | 39.38% | -22.47% | 4.24% | -8.33% | 7.77% |
| Very Unlikely | 101.75% | 480.33% | 58.92% | 14.12% | 46.35% |
http://www.autolinedetroit.tv/journa...olt-Study2.xls
In a complex problem like auto sales, there are multiple conflicting requirements but can be separated into positive and negative requirements. When positive requirements exceed the negative, sales increase. Understand these are my opinions:
- negative - hybrids are too complex. Perhaps the least effective argument for the technically skilled, I see evidence that many coworkers consider hybrids just too far advanced for transportation. Yet internally, they have a fraction of the number of parts in the transmission compared to their competition.
- positive - impressive mileage. Yet still there are skeptics and liars who claim otherwise.
- negative - hybrids are too delicate. The absence of any towing capability suggests they are a 'princess and the pea' that can't handle ordinary vehicle duties. In one respect, my towing an airplane 600 miles directly assaults that illusion.
- positive - half the fatal accident rate of ordinary cars. Yet Toyota brake and runaway acceleration are still part of the reputation.
I don't think there is a 'magic bullet' and hesitate to suggest there is one for others. I do know we have two Prius in the driveway and one 1993 RV that hasn't moved in over two years. As for MPG, I don't really care anymore since I have a new project, refurbishing and flying a Dragonfly.
Bob Wilson
- ZVW30
