[bwilson4web]

I have been expecting a fall-off in Prius sales in May but April may be the harbinger:

• 9,491 - August 2011
• 7,907 - July 2011
• 4,340 - June 2011
• 6,924 - May 2011
• 12,447 - April 2011
• 18,605 - March 2011

The hybrid dashboard sales report showed up and the shortage has already started:
http://www.hybridcars.com/news/april...ard-29827.html

• 2.12%, 24,797 - all hybrids
• 0.09%, 1,066 - electric and plug-in
• 0.79%, 9,138 - diesels

Bob Wilson

[bwilson4web]

Within 24-48 hours, we'll know the May numbers which I am expecting to look pretty grim. It takes about 4-6 weeks to drain the queue of Prius coming from Japan and there has already been ~6,000 drop in units April to May. I'm expecting the May to June drop to be a similar drop. Then some recovery in June, more in July and back to full numbers by August.

Bob Wilson

[bwilson4web]

bwilson4web said:

Within 24-48 hours, we'll know the May numbers which I am expecting to look pretty grim. It takes about 4-6 weeks to drain the queue of Prius coming from Japan and there has already been ~6,000 drop in units April to May. I'm expecting the May to June drop to be a similar drop. Then some recovery in June, more in July and back to full numbers by August.

http://pressroom.toyota.com/releases...2011+sales.htm

. . . Prius mid-size gas-electric hybrid posted May sales of 6,924 units.

Stone struck dumb.

I just reviewed the May detailed records and there are lessons to be learned. I'll chat about them later . . .

Bob Wilson

[bwilson4web]

The June sales data came out and the numbers were grim but when looking at the annual sales:

• 66,520 - Prius sold in 2011
• 66,039 - Prius sold in 2010

But I also noticed the North American produced, Highlander:

• 7,214 / 44,553 - June 2011 / total 2011
• 5,009 / 31,811 - June 2010 / total 2010

I suspect that off-shore plants have a deeper, supply chain and were able to mitigate their manufacture lines to sustain some production of their more popular and profitable model. BTW, I edited the first thread in this post to put the 4,340 Prius sales with the May, April, March sales.

Bob Wilson

[bwilson4web]

Ok, one data point can be an outlier but the July Dashboard report:

Model	July Sales
Prius	7,907
Hyundai Sonata	4,177
Lexus CT200h	1,553
Insight	987
CR-Z	878
Lexus RX450h	671
Ford Escape	652
Ford Fusion	426
Linc. MKZ Hybrid	480

Ok, I expected to see Prius sales increase and to some extent, announcements that Prius production was getting preference over the other Toyota hybrids, this makes sense. So it is not that surprising that the Lexus hybrids also got a boost. But the Ford Escape and Fusion impact shows how badly our domestic hybrid makers need to develope local supplier. Most surprising, the Hyundai Sonata, 4,177 sales.

My Mom sent me a note about the Hyundai and if it weren't for her retirement income, she was interested in the automatic, sunscreens. So let's see how the top three stack up:

total volume (EPA)	combined MPG (EPA)	Price (Edmunds)	Model
116 ft{3}	50 MPG	$22,800	Prius
125 ft{3}	37 MPG	$25,795	Sonata
100 ft{3}	42 MPG	$29,120	CT200

For volume, the Sonata looks good but the mileage, not so hot.

I think I need to visit the Hyundai dealer and 'kick the tires.'

Bob Wilson

[bwilson4web]

Tracking Prius sales:

• 9,491 - August 2011
• 7,907 - July 2011
• 4,340 - June 2011
• 6,924 - May 2011
• 12,447 - April 2011
• 18,605 - March 2011

Sales within the Toyota/Lexus groups:

1. 30,185 - Camry (N. American built: 30,164)
2. 16,624 - Corolla (N. American built: 12,402)
3. 9,491 - Prius
4. 8,650 - Tacoma (total 2x, 4x) (N. American pickups: 15,402 *)
5. 8,648 - Sienna (N. American built: 8,648)
6. 8,074 - Highlander (N. American built: 7,785)
7. 6,752 - Tundra (*)
8. 6,505 - RAV4 (N. American built: 4,973)
9. 6,504 - RX (N. American built: 5,349)
10. 3,887 - Lexus ES

North American production helped keep the Toyota shops and sales running while Toyota Japan recovers. Given there is a six week shipping lag, we're seeing good Prius recovery but obviously still half of the March sales. But as Prius sales recover, the hybrid dashboard report shows something else:
http://www.hybridcars.com/hybrid-cle...gust-2011.html

model	sales	% change
Toyota Prius	9,491	20.0%
Hyundai Sonata	4,136	-1.0%
Lexus CT 200h	2,087	34.4%
Nissan LEAF	1,362	+46%
Honda Insight	961	-2.6%
Honda CR-Z	745	-15.1%
Lexus RX450h	841	25.3%
Ford Escape	563	-13.7%
Linc. MKZ Hybrid	491	2.3%
Toyota Camry	318	-19.1%
Chevy Volt	302	141.6%
Ford Fusion	216	-52.6%

Korean hybrid sales exploited the loss of the market leader and both Honda and Ford suffered from loss of Japanese hybrid part production. Certainly the Leaf and Volt enjoyed these advantages. But relative to German diesels, something else is showing up.

In August, the Jetta, 4,800 -7.8% and Golf, 914 -5.4%, showed at best, a flat-line or slight reduction in sales. What this suggests is the efficient car market may be of finite size. Yes, this could be seasonal dip but over the past years, we've seen this market run between 2-3%, floating around 2.5%.

Bob Wilson

[Mckenzie500]

It is one of the best-selling hybrid model in SUV segment, I'm expecting its sale to be increased in future by a large amount.

[bwilson4web]

Uh, Oh, Tracking Prius sales:

• 11,008 - October 2011
• 9,325 - September 2011
• 9,491 - August 2011
• 7,907 - July 2011
• 4,340 - June 2011
• 6,924 - May 2011
• 12,447 - April 2011
• 18,605 - March 2011

A plateau could be the signature of a new model, the Prius V(?), or; other unexpected manufacturing delay, the limits of some resource say rare earths(?), or; softening sales, only if confirmed by growing inventory, or; traditional soft sales month, September. This is what Toyota's press release reports:
http://pressroom.toyota.com/releases...2011+sales.htm

Toyota Motor Sales (TMS), U.S.A., Inc., today reported September sales of 121,451 units. With 25 selling days in September 2010 and 2011, sales were down 17.5 percent over the year-ago month on both a daily selling rate (DSR) and unadjusted raw volume basis.

Toyota Division recorded September sales of 106,456 vehicles, a decrease of 18.2 percent from the year-ago month. Lexus Division reported September sales of 14,995 units, a decrease of 11.5 percent from last year.
. . .
Toyota Division passenger cars recorded sales of 58,237 units, a decrease of 19.3 percent from last September. . . .


Toyota Division light trucks posted sales of 48,219 units in September, down 17.0 percent from the same period last year. . . .

TMS posted September sales of 12,123 hybrid vehicles, a decrease of 18.5 percent compared to the same period last year. . . .

The hybrid dashboard report should be available in a couple of days and we'll see how Prius sales stand as a percentage of hybrid sales.

Bob Wilson

[bwilson4web]

Following low Prius sales, the rest of the hybrid market really took a hit in September in the dashboard report:

Toyota Prius 9,325 -1.7%
Hyundai Sonata 2,000 -51.6%
Lexus CT 200h 1,444 -30.8%
Lexus RX450h 650 -22.7%
Ford Escape 566 0.5%
Ford Fusion 552 155.6%

The Hyundai Sonata sales are an estimate.

Most hybrid sales have been shadowing the Prius but now we're seeing how deep is the market loss. A couple more months and hybrids will become non-trivial but effectively a footnote. So I'm looking at my co-workers and all I see is 'selective audio accuity' which probably means I'm deaf to what drives their buying decisions.

I don't know why there were so few Prius sales in September. August wasn't much to shout about either. All I can observe is a softening is occurring and that doesn't bode well for the general economy. This is just my personal opinion but the kids at 'Occupy Wallstreet' look likely to be hybrid buyers but they are broke and have nothing better to do than sit in the streets.

Bob Wilson

[bwilson4web]

To some extent, tracking Prius and hybrid sales is like keeping baseball statistics . . . the illusion of knowledge without the hard work of picking up a bat.

bwilson4web said:

. . . Tracking Prius sales:

• 11,008 - October 2011
• 9,325 - September 2011
• 9,491 - August 2011
• 7,907 - July 2011
• 4,340 - June 2011
• 6,924 - May 2011
• 12,447 - April 2011
• 18,605 - March 2011

. . .

The Prius is starting to split off into variants. The Prius wagon, Prius-V, is now on sale and in 2012, it will be joined by the micro-sized Prius-C and Prius-P (plug-in.) But the bottom line, the total hybrid sales as a percentage of the market, 1.97%, has remained all but a constant ~2% since the NHW20.

One curious behavior is how other hybrids wax and wane with Prius sales. In March 2011, there were seven alternate hybrids that sold from 1,195-2,782 units. In October, just two, 1,511-2,001 unit.

Bob Wilson