[bwilson4web]

Almost exactly a week ago, I posted about the low Prius inventory, 30 days, and then things changed:

• earthquake
• tsunami
• nuclear plant failure

Two of three major hybrid makers, Toyota and Honda, are suffering from the disaster. Except for the inventory in boats, new hybrids will be in short supply. Ford remains and some dabblers but even these manufacturers will need parts from Japan. This will be a year of challenges and vultures are poised in the wings.

One of the better summaries is Chris Woodyard's article:
http://content.usatoday.com/communit...ius-shortage/1

The Japanese earthquake-tsunami disaster, combined with high gas prices, appears to be sparking a run on Toyota Prius and other Japanese hybrid and high-mileage cars.

Dealers say they are starting to run low on some models, the Detroit News reports, quoting one dealer official, Dianne Whitmire, fleet manager of Carson Toyota in Carson, Calif., as saying, "I'm getting 30 to 40 requests a day for (Toyota) Priuses," compared with five to 10 a day a month ago."
. . .

But others are all but gleeful in this bad news.

So a posting titled "Toyota Prius Shortage Opens Way for Alternatives":

http://blogs.cars.com/kickingtires/2...ives.html#more

. . .
So, what do you do if you want to buy a 50-mpg car and can’t find a Prius at a good price?

Well, you’ll have to readjust your sights downward in terms of mileage. The Prius is currently the only car on the market that achieves 50 mpg combined. The new Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf electric vehicles are basically sold out for the year, as well. That leaves you with cars that get above-average mileage, if not 50 mpg.

We recently listed our favorite new cars that get over 35 mpg on the highway. The list is below. . . .

No doubt, there are dealers who look at these disasters as . . . well a time to make profits on existing, suddenly rare and valuable inventory. It is as expected but I'm remembering a time when dealers all but 'auctioned' Prius with significant, dealer markups. It is why we turned down such an offer in the spring of 2005 and bought a used, 2003 Prius six months later.

The cruelest irony lies in the rubble of nuclear power plants, the current, major alternative to fossil fuels. Yes, we will see a resurgence towards renewable energy. Yet renewables will not come online overnight but still they will come faster than a new nuclear power plant. The die is cast and can not be turned back any more than the crumbling reactors in Diichi, Chernobyl and Three Mile Island will be repaired and returned to service. In the meanwhile, our species will burn up the last fossil fuels at an increasing pace.

One thing I hope comes out is recognition in Toyota, Honda, Ford and all design centers that hybrids should become proper, co-generators. In a perfect world (for the USA) :

• natural gas and liquid fuel - we have a lot of natural gas to burn and it is available at many homes.
• 5-7 kW AC power - each hybrid should be a proper co-generator using the battery for primary power and engine to maintain charge.
• Use waste heat - we'll never get more than 1/3d of the chemical energy as electric power but at least use as much of the 2/3d energy for hot water, house heating and even air conditioning. Like regenerative braking saves energy, we don't have to reclaim all but a significant portion is enough.

Bob Wilson